Re : Ageas
Salut tout le monde,
KBC Sec ce matin confirme sa reco à l'achat avec obj 40,40.
Voici le résumé de l'avis :
Ageas has suffered a weak ytd stock price performance due to
a number of temporary issues, including weather-related
impacts and Belgian political instability. Its LT earnings
prospects are however intact and the de-rating is in our view
overdone. With more capital expected to return to
shareholders (H2), sentiment could be about to improve. BUY
* The weak ytd stock price performance means that Ageas is trading
at an attractive 0.75x 14E TBV and 6.5x 15E (adj. for net cash), a
deep discount to EU peers (1.4x TBV, 11x 15E earnings).
* A re-rating could be on the cards as we expect the group to return
more capital to shareholders in H2. Around €1bn of the €1.8bn
HoldCo buffer is probably deployable, and the board’s willingness
and ability to distribute part of the excess has in our view increased.
* The capital redeployment towards the Asian operations is moreover
gaining traction, which we see as a crucial longer-term re-rating
catalyst. This note will zoom in on Asia, where life is good.
* We also discuss the earnings outlook, which looks solid despite the
low interest rate backdrop. Lower reinvestment rates could
nevertheless weigh on non-life earnings as investment income
remains the dominant source of P&C profits.
* We therefore slightly cut our 2015 EPS estimates (-3%) and TP
(to €40,4 from €42). BUY reiterated.
Dernière modification par demat (04-07-2014 18:59:07)
