Salut tout le monde,
ça vaut ce que ça vaut mais KBC viens de réduire son obj de 46 à 31 €. Voici l'avis. Depuis juin elle a qd mm fameusement chuté.
News:
After the recent news about the C-Cure project missing its primary endpoint
in the CHART-1 trial, we remodelled the project and subsequently reduced
our target price for the company to € 31/sh while maintaining the current
Accumulate rating. We believe the stock reaction was quite harsh, combined
with the current market conditions. Valuation upside is clearly present but due
to uncertainty around the future/partnership of C-Cure and timing till further
news flow, we stand by our Accumulate rating.
Our View:
After the news of last week it was clear that the company plans to engage
with the EMA to see if there is an opportunity to move forward with the
project. Communication can be expected within 3-4 months. The data file of
the subgroup EDV segmentation will thus be based on around 162 patients.
The question is thus if the regulator will find the presented data sufficient
(number of patients exposed, quality of data, etc.), and more importantly what
kind of label it can get. Without details in hand, our first impression is that the
label will be narrow and it cannot be excluded that the regulator will advise to
perform an additional study on this specific subgroup.
It was systematically stressed that Celyad will not invest any money in CCure
and that all the future developments will be carried by a partner. Even if
approval would be obtained by the EMA and no partner could be found, then
Celyad envisages to spin-out the asset and seek separate funding for it. In
terms of partnering, a global partner is preferred but a regional deal could be
accepted if needed. So far we understand interested parties were mainly
pharma players, but Celyad will also actively pursue contacts in the medical
device world as these are in contact with cardiologists treating heart failure.
The reason why Celyad needs a partner (EU&US) is because this autologous
cell-therapy product is very novel and will require a big-pharma medical
education and marketing approach as future prescribers (interventional
cardiologists) may at this point not be very open for such drastic (and most
likely costly) therapies.
We decided to leave C-Cure out of the equation, reducing its value close to
zero, until discussions with the EMA are completed and/or a partner is found
which can provide new insights. Full data disclosure of the trial will also be
made public at a conference end-August. The value of the company now
entirely lies in the NKR-2 project, with most weight on the future potential in
solid tumour indications with news expected around these projects in 2H16.
Conclusion:
After revaluation of the C-Cure project, we lower our target price to € 31/sh
and maintain our Accumulate rating.
Bonne journée,
demat
Dernière modification par demat (07-07-2016 09:34:13)
