Sujet : Minerai de fer
Moody's ne raconte pas toujours n'importe quoi !
Ou alors nous il publie trop souvent des news qui ne nous arrange pas !!!!
Voici le rapport en anglais très aisé a traduire éventuellement avec google.
Iron ore prices seen as falling in the short term
Moody's sees record results from iron ore miners in 2011 unlikely to be maintained as prices expected to weaken - except perhaps for the big three: Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP.
Author: Christy Filen
Posted: Wednesday , 29 Feb 2012
JOHANNESBURG (MINEWEB) -
The dust has hardly settled on the celebrations of record iron ore results for 2011 and analysts are expecting prices to weaken.
With capacity increases expected to bring more than 450Mtpa, or 260Mtpa on a 62% Fe equivalent basis, on line in the next two years, iron ore prices are in for some pressure says leading research firm Moody's Investors Service.
In a South African context, Kumba Iron Ore has just brought its Kolomela mine on line five months ahead of schedule. The mine is expected to produce 9mtpa from 2013 to add to the existing production of 40mtpa from the Sishen and Thabazimbi mines.
Kumba's headline earnings for the year ended 31 December 2011 were a record R17.0 billion (US$2.3 billion), 19% more than the R14.3 billion achieved in 2010. This was achieved mainly as a result of a weighted average increase of 26% in export iron ore prices and a 3% increase in sales volumes.
African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) is also ahead of schedule with its ramp up its Khumani iron ore expansion project from 10mtpa to 16mtpa. The iron ore division reported a 79% increase in headline earnings to R3.1bn for the six months ended 31 December 2011.
Logistics plays an important role with industry players and Transnet having embarked on a joint feasibility study to expand the current Saldanha export channel to beyond 60mtpa. The study is expected to be completed by March 2012 said ARM.
But the additional capacity is not the only threat to iron ore prices over the medium term. Moody's added that the uncertainty around a Chinese slowdown in growth coupled with a weakening outlook for steel and a simultaneous growth in Chinese scrap steel supply could push prices below the US$120/t barrier.
China's consumption of total iron ore production has grown from around 44% in 2006 to 54% in 2011 on the back of continued industrialisation and urbanisation accompanied by a tightening of supply and resultant strong price increases said Moody's. The prices have undoubtedly cooled in the last six months but could trend lower if the analysts' forecasts come to fruition.
The exception to the rule are expected to be the big three (Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto) said Moody's.
"We would expect the iron ore divisions of the major producers to remain highly profitable over the medium term given the scale, efficiency and low cash costs of production"
The casualties are expected to be the higher cost producers whose margins could be squeezed.
All is not negative though with the analysts remaining confident in the long term fundamentals supported by ongoing growth, urbanisation and the continued curbing of exports by India.
Other positive factors mentioned are renewed growth and mining projects being notoriously slower on ramp up than guidance given, especially given the logistical and political challenges facing some of the more remote prospects.
